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Magic Bud
273c18
If we get only two sand attacks off (50% chance) then accuracy is 50%. Idk what the cutoff is, I'm guessing four attacks missed in a row, which would be .5^4, or 6.25% to happen immediately. After that... the enemy wins if they hit us 9 times before they miss four in a row. That's a rather difficult statistical problem so I'm not going to do it.
For the other 50%, we get three sand attacks so accuracy is 40%, and so 20% of total probability we're limited to three. .6^4 or 12.96% chance to miss four in a row immediately.
30% probability left over, four sand attacks accuracy is 33%, so 10% total probability we're limited to four. .66^4 = about 19% chance to tap out immediately.
20% probability left over, five sand attacks accuracy is 28.6%, so 5.7% chance total probability we're limited to five. .714^4 = about 26% chance to win immediately.
Overall the chance to instantly win is .5*.0625 + .2*.1296 + .1*.19 + .057*.26 = 9.1% chance for Flygon to survive. The actual chance to win by forfeit is much much higher, since on average the enemy needs to attack 18 times to get 9 hits, and the chance to miss four in a row gets pretty likely at that point.
Still, I don't want to calculate the chance, so I don't want to count on it, and I'd also rather just cheat since the mechanics are broken to begin with.
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